I'm back. Sorry for the extended break. An unexpected vacation and busy start to the season has slightly derailed the blog, but no worries. I'm ready to get back into it. I thought I'd start by taking a look at a few of the early season story lines after the first two weeks.
Injured Starting Pitchers - It started with John Lackey and Ervin Santana, but more recently Dice-K, Webb and Carpenter have joined them on the injured list. Webb is the biggest name and while his injury does not sound serious, it's always worrisome when your ace has any arm trouble. Lackey and Santana should be back in a month or so along with John Smoltz who is progressing nicely in his rehab. I'd grab any of these guys and stash them if I could. Dice-K and Carpenter just went on the DL today and both are cause for concern. Dice-K has what's called arm fatigue, most likely from pitching in the WBC, but he hasn't look sharp and it could be more serious. I'd be concerned. I'd also be slightly concerned with Carpenter. He looked really good in the spring and had a superb first outing as well. This looks like it could keep him out for a while, but hopefully he can bounce right back and continue his amazing return to dominance.
Early Surprises - Like every season, there are guys who start off hot almost out of nowhere. Brandon Inge, Nick Swisher, Nyjer Morgan and even Marco Scutaro have blazed out of the gate. Obviously these guys can't keep up their pace, but most of these guys do have skills. I'd grab every one of them and ride the hot streak. Just be ready to dump them when the slump comes and more than likely it will come.
Early Disappointments - There are too many to list, but the first 3 rounds are littered with guys that haven't gotten on track yet. From Ryan Braun to Jimmy Rollins to Jose Reyes to Mark Teixera to Lance Berkman to Prince Fielder. Not to mention Arod and Ichiro with their injuries. Please be patient with these guys. These guys will hit and you don't want to be the guy to trade them away. Now, in some leagues guys might be getting nervous already, so if there's a hint that you can steal one of these top hitters away, go for it.
It is still early. I like to give my team until at least May 1 before making major changes. That doesn't mean you don't swap that struggling bench player or grab a SP with a good matchup. Just don't overhaul your roster just yet. It's a long season and things will even out.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Almost here
With roughly one week to go before the season starts I thought it'd be a good opportunity to review some spring stand outs to see who might be for real this year. We do have to be careful looking at spring stats, but it's important to look at a few things when considering these stand outs: Are they returning from an injury? Are they fighting for a new starting job? Were these guys a highly touted prospect that might have been forgotten after a slow start to their career? Did they finish strong in the 2nd half of last season? These are just a few questions to consider when looking at players in the spring.
Adam Jones OF BAL - He was the prized prospect of the Eric Bedard trade and didn't have a great start to his career in BAL, but finished strong in the 2nd half and has built on that success this spring. With a .378 BA, 1 HR and 7 SBs, he's showing the talent that made him a coveted piece of the trade. He showed promise last year, but never really put it all together. I think he's primed for a mini break out this year and might threaten 20+ SBs with solid numbers across the board.
Kevin Gregg RP CHC - When he was traded to the Cubs this off season, it appeared that he was brought in to set up flamethrower Carlos Marmol. The problem this spring has been Marmol's lack of effectiveness. Gregg has been solid and appears to have done enough to possibly win the closer job. Pinella is supposed to choose this weekend, but either way Gregg should figure into the saves picture and can be had pretty late in most drafts. Don't sleep on this sleeper.
Chris Carpenter SP STL - For a 4 year stretch he was one of the best pitchers in the NL. After a couple of surgeries he's on his way back this spring. He's shown great control with only 4 walks in 19 innings. He also hasn't allowed an earned run while racking up 10 K's. If he can return to form this season, he could be the steal of draft since he's being taken in the late teen rounds of most 12 team leagues.
Jordan Zimmermann SP WAS - The "other" Zimmermann in WAS, Jordan has burst onto the scene with 20 K's in only 14 innings. He has also wrapped up the 5th spot in the National rotation and looks to possibly be this year's Edison Volquez. While I'm not ready to put him on that level, he is definitely worth a flyer late in most 12 team leagues, if anything for the strike out potential.
Ryan Howard 1b PHI - This might be an obvious one, but I wanted to point out the potential steal this guy could be. People are scared off from Howard because of his BA, but if he can raise his average to .270 he'll easily give you first round value. He's leading all players with 7 HRs and hitting a respectable .293 with 18 RBIs. I think he rebounds and is well worth a selection at the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2.
Adam Jones OF BAL - He was the prized prospect of the Eric Bedard trade and didn't have a great start to his career in BAL, but finished strong in the 2nd half and has built on that success this spring. With a .378 BA, 1 HR and 7 SBs, he's showing the talent that made him a coveted piece of the trade. He showed promise last year, but never really put it all together. I think he's primed for a mini break out this year and might threaten 20+ SBs with solid numbers across the board.
Kevin Gregg RP CHC - When he was traded to the Cubs this off season, it appeared that he was brought in to set up flamethrower Carlos Marmol. The problem this spring has been Marmol's lack of effectiveness. Gregg has been solid and appears to have done enough to possibly win the closer job. Pinella is supposed to choose this weekend, but either way Gregg should figure into the saves picture and can be had pretty late in most drafts. Don't sleep on this sleeper.
Chris Carpenter SP STL - For a 4 year stretch he was one of the best pitchers in the NL. After a couple of surgeries he's on his way back this spring. He's shown great control with only 4 walks in 19 innings. He also hasn't allowed an earned run while racking up 10 K's. If he can return to form this season, he could be the steal of draft since he's being taken in the late teen rounds of most 12 team leagues.
Jordan Zimmermann SP WAS - The "other" Zimmermann in WAS, Jordan has burst onto the scene with 20 K's in only 14 innings. He has also wrapped up the 5th spot in the National rotation and looks to possibly be this year's Edison Volquez. While I'm not ready to put him on that level, he is definitely worth a flyer late in most 12 team leagues, if anything for the strike out potential.
Ryan Howard 1b PHI - This might be an obvious one, but I wanted to point out the potential steal this guy could be. People are scared off from Howard because of his BA, but if he can raise his average to .270 he'll easily give you first round value. He's leading all players with 7 HRs and hitting a respectable .293 with 18 RBIs. I think he rebounds and is well worth a selection at the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Moving up and moving down
As we get closer and closer to the start of the season, you should be ready for your draft. By this time, you shouldn't need to move guys to far one way or another (except in the case of serious injury or demotion). Today I wanted to discuss a few guys that seem to be moving in recent drafts. Some are gaining value while others are sliding for various reason. Let's start with the guys moving up.
LA's offense - With Manny now in the fold once again, the entire Dodgers lineup seems to be gaining momentum. From Furcal to Kemp to Either, everyone loves having Manny's bat back in the lineup. There's good reason for it and I agree that this offense should be one of the best in the NL...if everyone can stay healthy.
Chris Carpenter SP STL and Eric Bedard SP SEA - Two form aces seem to be returning to form this spring. There's always risk when a pitcher is coming back from injury, but these guys are well worth the risk where they are being drafted. Just be sure not to reach too high for them or the risk might out weigh the reward.
Pablo Sandoval 1b/3b/C? SF - Depending on your league Sandoval could offer great value at C. He's still a solid sleeper at corner, but he's been rising up draft boards more recently. I still think he's worth a shot and should deliver great numbers in the heart of SF's lineup.
Now let's turn to the guys sliding down a bit...
Ervin Santana SP LA - After a breakout season last year, he was poised to take the next step to elite status. That's been put on hold by a sprained elbow ligament. He's going to rest and take some time off, but that's a huge red flag for me and I've dropped him down a few rounds. If he falls too far, he could be a steal, but watch this closely.
Alex Rodriguez 3b NYY - This is an obvious one, but a tough one to gauge. Where do you take him now? We don't know when he'll be back. We don't know when he'll be himself even when he's back. My guess is someone will reach for him too early. I'll be the one who lets someone else draft him and then swoop in after he returns and isn't quite himself for the first few games. He should be Arod by the All Star break, but that might be too long to wait for some owners.
Cole Hamels SP PHI - After a superb season followed by an MVP World Series, Hamels recently complained of some discomfort in his elbow. He had a huge work load last year and this doesn't help the concerns. I wouldn't be too worried, but I'd defiantly bump him down a few spots.
LA's offense - With Manny now in the fold once again, the entire Dodgers lineup seems to be gaining momentum. From Furcal to Kemp to Either, everyone loves having Manny's bat back in the lineup. There's good reason for it and I agree that this offense should be one of the best in the NL...if everyone can stay healthy.
Chris Carpenter SP STL and Eric Bedard SP SEA - Two form aces seem to be returning to form this spring. There's always risk when a pitcher is coming back from injury, but these guys are well worth the risk where they are being drafted. Just be sure not to reach too high for them or the risk might out weigh the reward.
Pablo Sandoval 1b/3b/C? SF - Depending on your league Sandoval could offer great value at C. He's still a solid sleeper at corner, but he's been rising up draft boards more recently. I still think he's worth a shot and should deliver great numbers in the heart of SF's lineup.
Now let's turn to the guys sliding down a bit...
Ervin Santana SP LA - After a breakout season last year, he was poised to take the next step to elite status. That's been put on hold by a sprained elbow ligament. He's going to rest and take some time off, but that's a huge red flag for me and I've dropped him down a few rounds. If he falls too far, he could be a steal, but watch this closely.
Alex Rodriguez 3b NYY - This is an obvious one, but a tough one to gauge. Where do you take him now? We don't know when he'll be back. We don't know when he'll be himself even when he's back. My guess is someone will reach for him too early. I'll be the one who lets someone else draft him and then swoop in after he returns and isn't quite himself for the first few games. He should be Arod by the All Star break, but that might be too long to wait for some owners.
Cole Hamels SP PHI - After a superb season followed by an MVP World Series, Hamels recently complained of some discomfort in his elbow. He had a huge work load last year and this doesn't help the concerns. I wouldn't be too worried, but I'd defiantly bump him down a few spots.
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